I missed the very start, I’ll have to catch the video tomorrow. What I did catch did address a good number of my concerns, but didn’t present anything that seemed decisive on the strategic front. Mark me as assauged but not convinced.
The most important addition to what was known before today is the withdrawal date. Yes, as Douthat says, enemies now know how long they need to hold out. On the other hand, those that want us to leave but otherwise aren’t our enemies can now feel more confidence in reconciliation. The Taliban is not a massive army, I think it’s distinctly possible that the latter group is much larger than the former.
More the point, the patience of the American people is not unlimited and the patience of our allies is largely exhausted. Douthat’s suggestion an internal withdrawal date, obviously can’t be shared with the public and even in backrooms would not be credible to either allies or congressional leaders. Time will tell if I’m right on the allies and we get more troops in the interim.
In the likely event that we do not achieve a clear cut victory, a firm withdrawal date allows for an end to the occupation on terms we dictate and with the chance for political support. This allows for a sustainable post-occupation engagement with Afghanistan. Given the strong temptation of escalation, demonstrated here once again, skeptics will be far more open to continued support if we’ve demonstrates we have the will power to walk away.
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