The Obama administration has wisely rejected regime change, but is it committed to supporting democracy non-violently? It’s difficult to say. On the one hand, they’ve respected democratic outcomes in Iraq, made statements in support of Pakistan’s civilian government, and worked to rebuild rule of law in that country. Those are critical test cases as they are areas where U.S. interests are most at stake. However, as Marc Lynch notes, Gates as said to Egyptian President and dictator Hosni Mubarak that military aid to Egypt, billions per year, is not contingent on democracy or human rights.
We will discover how Obama feels about Democracy promotion on June 4th when he will be making a speech from Cairo. Choosing Egypt to give his promised speech in the Muslim world dramatically escalates the stakes for the speech because Egypt, along with Saudi Arabia, symbolize U.S. thwarting of democracy in Arabic nations. Turkey or Indonesia, both democratic Muslim countries, would allowed some sidestepping of the issue as both governments could be legitimately praised. Neither country is Arabic, but at least it would showcase good relations with predominantly Muslim nations.
I really do not know how Obama is going to come down on this. His instincts are often realpolitik, albeit not constrained by the classical realist exclusive focus on the nation state. If he does not make a meaningful push for human rights in Egypt or reach out to the non-violent Muslim Brotherhood it would be a profound mistake but not a betrayal of campaign promises. Nonetheless, I actually rate this issue more important than the President’s positions on the torture pictures or even some sort of military commissions compromise. Hamas and Hezbollah are hard cases, but the Muslim Brotherhood is not. Our harbinger of change choose his venue, intentionally raised the stake, and anything short of a strong and Egypt specific message of democracy support will rightfully be seen as U.S. opposition to popular rule among our Gulf allies or more accurately put our frenemies.
As Spencer Ackerman notes in a post on Somalia today, there are forces in this world far worse than moderate Islamists, even moderate armed Islamists. Please, Mr. President, stand with government by the people, of the people, and for the people. Democracy may be about more than elections, but popular sovereignty is at its heart.
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