There’s a great quote in the new CDI book, America’s Defense Meltdown, from the second chapter by Col. Chet Richards.
Much of what is hypthesized as “Fourth Generation Warfare” -- state versus nonstate groups or “transnational insurgencies" – fall into [the law enforcement] category and so does not represent a new form of warfare so much as an evolution of crime. Our opponents in these conflicts are not organized military forces or even insurgent units fighting to overthrow a government, but have more the form of transnational criminal cartels, albeit sometimes with an ideological or religious veneer. [Emphasis mine]
On that topic, Douglas Burgess argues in a NY Times Op-ed (Hat tip, my friend David) that piracy is terrorism. I think the ‘enemies of the human race’ talk is a bit much, pirates often have the courtesy of at least ransoming rather than slaughtering their victims, but being able to prosecute them under universal jurisdiction makes a lot of practical sense.
For another relevant discussion, opium production in Afghanistan is one of the key revenue sources for the Taliban. Happily cultivation is down 19% according to the latest UN report. Patrick Barry over at Democracy Arsenal takes it upon himself to read beyond the executive summary and finds a key reason in addition to suppression efforts and weather:
Second, and most importantly, the dynamics of farm prices. As (Afghan) supply has once again exceeded (world) demand, prices for opium (both fresh and old) are down 20% in nominal terms (and much more at constant prices).
I’d heard at least a year ago that production was exceeding world demand but that prices weren’t falling yet. That seemed rather odd to me, I’m guessing that prices are stickier in illegal markets.
However, I think that the Taliban doesn’t fall under the straight criminal framework. They do want to govern Afghanistan and it guides their actions. Noah Shachtman over at the Wired danger room notes that the Taliban is dropping some of the crazy puritanical stuff and is focusing on anti-occupation efforts. Al Qaeda in Iraq hasn’t does this, and that’s part of what caused the Sunni Awakening and why everyone hates them. This is via Ackerman who notes that the Taliban is probably trying to avoid their mistakes and that this will make it harder to split them a la the Awakening.
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