I think Gregory Djerejian has had the best post I’ve read on the matter. Key points:
First, let us disabuse ourselves from the notion that Mr. Saakashvili (head of the government in Georgia) is some glorious democrat (the election he barely won in January included irregularities, and there continues to be endemic corruption
in Tblisi). Second, let us recall that many south Ossetians and
Abkhazians are not particularly keen to live under Tbilisi’s yoke,
indeed some prefer Russian influence to predominate there for the time being. Third, if there is any truth to Russian allegations that there are some 1,500 fatalities in the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali--and they were caused by a major initial over-reach by the Georgian military (we will need to wait for more details to emerge)--expect many more brutish bombardments like the Russians apparently have conducted in the Georgian town of Gori, alas. Fourth, some context: ever since the overly hasty recognition of Kosovo went live, Putin has been very keen to intimate what’s good for the goose is good for the gander, having personally threatened Saakashvili that Russia would formally recognize as independent states Ossetia and Abkhazia.
His final point is that Saakashvili really screwed up here by launching an offensive to resecure Ossetia. I do think it’s important that we keep Russia from taking over neighbors, but there’s a difference between Georgia proper and breakaway republics that have function autonomy. First priority here should be de-escalation and stopping the killing.
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